Beyond the Basics — Ohio’s 11th Congressional District
If this is your first time reading, please check out the methods laid out in the announcement/background post.
Overview:
Following contested special primaries on August 3, 2021, Democrat Shontel Brown and Republican Laverne Gore are slated for a November 2, 2021, special general election in Ohio’s 11th Congressional District. Long-time incumbent Marcia Fudge won the 2020 election with a resounding 80.1% of votes, before assuming the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Since the 1990 Census redistricting, this seat has been Democratic and considered a safe blue seat. However, by looking beyond historical partisan politics, this piece will analyze frequent nonpresidential voters at a granular level and dissect the nuances applicable to both candidates.
Demographics:
The latest US Census data shows a 3.9% decrease in population in Ohio CD11, with an estimated 684,617 residents in 2019 — down from 721,032 in 2010 — and 26.06% of that population is aged 25 to 44. While it makes sense for the voter population to be smaller, with 110,000 addressable voters, it is interesting to note that 26% of this population is aged 45 to 54. Whereas a little more than 52% of the total population are female, the voter population skews slightly male with a 51% composition. Socioeconomically and educationally, the general population and voter audience align, with a majority of people having at least a high school diploma and household income in the range of $25,000 to $50,000.
The main takeaway when comparing the general population to likely voters is that voters comprise an older demographic, with 46% being aged 45 to 64, while that same age range makes up 26% of the total population. When factoring this into strategy, it is important to account for how these voters consume media — often through more traditional mediums — as well as their key issues.
Personal Values and Daily Life:
When looking at the segmented audience, these voters index highly for lawfulness, reliability, and trustworthiness, and maintaining security and safety in their lives, community, and country. Themes of order and accountability would resonate highly with these voters who also place importance on faith and family. The culmination of these factors demonstrates a strong desire for the safety and stability of voters’ families and communities.
Media Habits:
Of these voters, 67% spend at least 20 hours online per week, with 56% indexing as medium to heavy social media users, primarily on Facebook and Pinterest. In addition to online media consumption, this population prefers Paramount+ and Starz streaming services, and Amazon Fire Stick and Roku over linear TV, using tablets and smart TVs.
Interestingly, when taking in a multitude of factors — top TV networks include CBS Sports, NBC Sports, and NFL Network; Sports Illustrated is the top magazine subscription; sports applications are the most used/downloaded; attending/watching sporting events are top indexing hobbies — these candidates should highlight their campaign with a TV spot during sports-related content to effectively address these voters.
According to the Facebook Ad Library archive, Democrats Shontel Brown and Nina Turner, along with Republican Laverne Gore, were the three candidates to spend money on Facebook advertising in the August special primary election. Of the three, Nina Turner (who was defeated by Shontel Brown), spent the most, with $247,670 compared to sub-five-figure amounts for the other two candidates. With this in mind, the two general candidates should utilize Facebook advertising as a more cost-effective way than print media or linear television.
Taking into account the high activity on Facebook and sports fanaticism, both candidates should allocate funds to these two advertising options.
Political Drivers:
The 2021 Cook Partisan Voter Index has Ohio’s 11th Congressional District rated as Democrat +30 — fairly on par with the 2017 rating of D+32. While not a stark contrast in ratings over this four-year period, voter analysis shows a composition of 46% Democrats, 26% Republicans, and 23% Independents with the voter landscape indexing higher than average for America First Populists, In-flux Inactives, and Dedicated Democrats. With ideological views, this group indexes primarily as moderates on fiscal and social matters and is highly concerned with matters regarding healthcare and pharmaceuticals in addition to childhood hunger and diseases.
The diverse political breakdown of these voters warrants an across-the-aisle approach that pragmatically addresses both healthcare and the betterment of youth.
Key Takeaways:
After assessing the likely voter population of Ohio’s 11th Congressional District, here are the findings:
- Most voters are considerably older than the general population.
- There is a strong emphasis on community and shared values.
- This group is highly active online, especially on Facebook.
- With hobbies and viewership, spectating sports is at the forefront.
- Politically, these voters skew from historical norms, with an eclectic mix of party affiliation and moderate fiscal and social views.
Taking these factors into account, Shontel Brown and Laverne Gore should approach their special general election campaigns with a heavy emphasis on properly representing the localized needs and issues of the district, avoiding partisan politics. For advertising, Facebook and sports-related media should be used as focal points to effectively reach voters.
